F1 Monaco Update: Antonelli Powers Up, Verstappen Lurks

Antonelli grabs pole, both Ferraris on the podium and with Verstappen on the hunt at the 2026 Monaco Grand Prix.

After a predictably exciting Monaco qualifying, our previous predictions required some adjustments . . . but not as many as you might think. Kimi found the magic in FP3 and then again in qualifying after Ferrari dominated the first two practice sessions. Verstappen once again extracted everything the RB22 had to offer, while McLaren seem to have fallen from the promise they showed in Miami and Montreal — and this time they can't even blame the strategists.

We blew the $50 pledged to this Substack on a yacht in Monaco. Okay, we could only afford part of a bench, but we got to pose next to some prince's scotch a gentlemanly distance from the track.

Hamilton lines up P3 on the grid, but his form coupled with the strong starts that the prancing horses have shown all season gives him a real shot at the top spot. Given that will likely require a daring pass at the first corner though, we now believe the young Italian has the edge once again. Will Kimi Antonelli Wolff again make history tomorrow? Our model now thinks so.

Here are our revised predictions after qualifying and the three practice sessions:

Model v2.0.23: Post-qualifying prediction breakdown with finishing positions and probabilities for the 2026 Monaco Grand Prix.

1. Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)

2. Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)

3. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)

4. Max Verstappen (Red Bull)

5. George Russell (Mercedes)

6. Oscar Piastri (McLaren)

7. Isack Hadjar (Red Bull)

8. Lando Norris (McLaren)

9. Pierre Gasly (Alpine)

10. Nico Hülkenberg (Audi)

11. Carlos Sainz (Williams)

12. Liam Lawson (Racing Bulls)

13. Alexander Albon (Williams)

14. Gabriel Bortoleto (Audi)

15. Franco Colapinto (Alpine)

16. Arvid Lindblad (Racing Bulls)

17. Esteban Ocon (Haas)

18. Oliver Bearman (Haas)

19. Sergio Perez (Cadillac)

20. Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin)

21. Valtteri Bottas (Cadillac)

22. Lance Stroll (Aston Martin)

Will there be passing tomorrow in Monaco? Can Russell save face and make up positions? Or will Albon once again hold up the whole grid to serve James Vowles? Be sure to join us for our discussion of the action on track, the model's performance, and more on our next episode of Recharge.