It's All About the Hamilton at the 2026 Monaco Grand Prix

Our model forecasts a Ferrari 1-2 at Monaco, with Antonelli and Norris further dimming Russell's championship hopes

It’s time for more racing once again, and it’s time for the glamour and the procession that usually is Monaco. But according to our prediction model, it’s also . . . hammer time! After an impressive Antonelli winning streak, we expect George Russell’s pain to persist with his former teammate likely to secure his first Grand Prix victory in scarlet.

On the coattails of a record contract extension, Charles Leclerc also looks favored to finish just behind his teammate on the podium. Eat your carbonara out, Tifosi: this might be your 2026 weekend to remember. Completing the Italian F1 fan’s dream trinity, Kimi is once again forecast to finish on the podium.

Even AI couldn’t imagine an image with enough yachts.

With silly season in full swing, rumors abound about the fates of two veteran drivers: Esteban Ocon and Valtteri Bottas. Bottas can likely expect a longer trial period with Colton Herta as the likely successor to the Cadillac throne. The former IndyCar winner-turned-F2-rookie has performed well, but he’s a long way from a podium in that junior series and still lacks the superlicence points required to line up on the F1 grid. Ocon, however, is under a lot of pressure. He needs to start challenging the indisputably talented Bearman soon.

Unfortunately, for both Ocon and Bottas, our model predicts their continued F1 prospects to suffer further. Meanwhile, we predict Aston Martin will show some promise this weekend with Williams and the Racing Bulls largely extending their current levels of performance.

Here are our predictions in full:

Model v2.0.23: Pre-qualifying prediction breakdown with finishing positions and probabilities for the 2026 Monaco Grand Prix.

1. Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)

2. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)

3. Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)

4. Lando Norris (McLaren)

5. George Russell (Mercedes)

6. Max Verstappen (Red Bull)

7. Oscar Piastri (McLaren)

8. Pierre Gasly (Alpine)

9. Isack Hadjar (Red Bull)

10. Franco Colapinto (Alpine)

11. Oliver Bearman (Haas)

12. Carlos Sainz (Williams)

13. Liam Lawson (Racing Bulls)

14. Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin)

15. Alexander Albon (Williams)

16. Lance Stroll (Aston Martin)

17. Esteban Ocon (Haas)

18. Nico Hülkenberg (Audi)

19. Gabriel Bortoleto (Audi)

20. Arvid Lindblad (Racing Bulls)

21. Valtteri Bottas (Cadillac)

22. Sergio Perez (Cadillac)

After beating the bookmakers in Canada (5.27 vs 5.45 positions off), this week our predictions are startlingly close to the bookmakers' odds — except when it comes to Aston Martin and Cadillac:

1. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)

2. Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)

3. Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)

4. George Russell (Mercedes)

5. Lando Norris (McLaren)

6. Max Verstappen (Red Bull)

7. Oscar Piastri (McLaren)

8. Isack Hadjar (Red Bull)

9. Pierre Gasly (Alpine)

10. Franco Colapinto (Alpine)

11. Alexander Albon (Williams)

12. Carlos Sainz (Williams)

13. Arvid Lindblad (Racing Bulls)

14. Oliver Bearman (Haas)

15. Gabriel Bortoleto (Audi)

16. Esteban Ocon (Haas)

17. Nico Hülkenberg (Audi)

18. Liam Lawson (Racing Bulls)

19. Sergio Perez (Cadillac)

20. Valtteri Bottas (Cadillac)

21. Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin)

22. Lance Stroll (Aston Martin)

And here’s our side-by-side comparison:

How the Overtake Mode model stacks up to the aggregate of bookmakers’ odds for the Monaco Grand Prix.

Even if we don’t see scarlet red in Monaco this weekend, we’ll break it all down on our next episode of Recharge!